WorldStage Newsonline– The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) rose from its two-day meeting on 22nd September 2020 with a decisions to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 100 basis points from 12.5 to 11.5 per cent, adjustment of asymmetric corridor to +100/-700 around the MPR, to retain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 27.5 per cent; and retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.
The CBN governor Mr Godwin Emefiele who read the communiqué at the end of the meeting said six members voted to reduce the MPR by 100 basis points, one member by 50.0 basis points and three voted to hold.
Nine members were said to have voted to change the asymmetric corridor while one member voted to hold.
All members were said to have voted to hold the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR).
He said the MPC noted the continued weakness in economic activities as indicated by the Manufacturing and non-Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMI) which remained below the 50 index point benchmark. In August 2020, the Manufacturing and non-Manufacturing PMIs were 48.5 and 44.3 index points, respectively, compared with 42.4 and 43.3 index points in July 2020.
He attributed this to slower growth in production, business activities, new orders, supply delivery time, employment level, new export orders and raw materials and input prices. Similarly, the employment level index component of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in August 2020 were 44.6 and 44.3 index points, respectively, compared with 40.0 and 41.1 index points in July 2020.
He said the Committee was, however, optimistic that with the easing of the lockdown and gradual resumption of economic activities, the PMIs will improve in the short-to medium term.
The Committee expressed deep concern on the continued uptick in inflation for the twelfth consecutive month as headline inflation (year-on-year) rose to 13.22 per cent in August 2020 from 12.82 per cent in July 2020.
He said, “The increase in headline inflation was largely driven by the persistent increase in the food component, which rose to 16.00 per cent in August 2020 from 15.48 per cent in July 2020. The core component also rose to 10.52 per cent in August from 10.10 per cent in July 2020. These upticks were driven primarily by legacy structural factors such as the inadequate state of critical infrastructure and broad-based security challenges across the country, which dampened production activities. Other factors include the disruptions to supply chains following restrictions to movement to curb the spread of the pandemic, adverse weather conditions, which resulted in flooding of farmlands as well as the inflation pass-through to domestic prices following the depreciation in the exchange rate. The recent increase in energy cost is also expected to further impact the domestic price level in the shortterm.”
He said the Committee, therefore, stressed the urgent need for a combination of broad-based monetary and fiscal policy measures to curb the rise in inflation and contraction in output growth. This will involve targeted investment by the fiscal authorities to resuscitate critical infrastructure to improve the ease of doing business across the country.
“ In addition, the MPC believes the fiscal authorities can build on earlier efforts and articulate a clear strategy to attract private sector investment. The Bank will, however, continue to take relevant steps to ensure that the detrimental risk of inflation to the economy is contained,” he said.
“The Committee noted the various interventions by the CBN to reflate the economy, improve aggregate supply and drive down inflation. Recent interventions were largely in the areas of Manufacturing, Agriculture, Electricity & Gas, Solar Power and housing constructions among others. It expressed optimism that these initiatives will significantly ease the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and set the economy on a path of recovery.”
He put total disbursements from the the CBN’s interventions in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic amount to N3.5 trillion including: Real Sector Funds, (N216.87 billion); COVID-19 Targeted Credit Facility (TCF), (N73.69 billion); AGSMEIS, (N54.66 billion); Pharmaceutical and Health Care Support Fund, (N44.47 billion); and Creative Industry Financing Initiative (N2.93 billion). Under the Real Sector Funds, a total of 87 projects that include 53 Manufacturing, 21 Agriculture and 13 Services projects were funded. In the Health Care sector, 41 projects which include 16 pharmaceuticals and 25 hospital and health care services were funded. Under the Targeted Credit Facility, 120,074 applicants have received financial support for investment capital. The Agri-Business/Small and Medium Enterprise Investment Scheme (AGSMEIS) intervention has been extended to a total of 14,638 applicants, while 250 SME businesses, predominantly the youths, have benefited from the Creative Industry Financing Initiative. In addition to these initiatives, the CBN is set to contribute over N1.8 trillion of the total sum of N2.30 trillion needed for the Federal Government’s 1-year Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP), through its various financing interventions using the channels of Participating Financial Institutions (PFIs).
He said, “The MPC is, thus, using this medium to appeal to our important economic stakeholders to take advantage of these intervention initiatives to help support a quick rebound in growth.”
He said the Bank’s policy on Loan to Deposit ratio also resulted in a significant growth in credit to various sectors from N15.57 trillion to N19.33 trillion between end-May 2019 and end-August 2020, an increase of N3.77 trillion.
He said, “This growth in credit was mainly to manufacturing (N866.27 billion), consumer credit (N527.65 billion), oil & gas (N477.65 billion), agriculture (N287.11 billion) and construction (N270.97 billion).
“On Monetary Aggregates, broad money supply (M3) rose to 6.93 per cent (year-to-date) in August 2020 from 5.23 per cent in July 2020, reflecting the increase in both Net Foreign Assets and Net Domestic Assets. Similarly, aggregate domestic credit (net) grew by 6.94 per cent in August 2020 compared with 9.43 per cent in July 2020.
“Money market rates remained relatively stable in the review period with some mild volatility, reflecting the prevailing liquidity conditions in the banking system. The monthly weighted average Inter-bank call rate increased to 7.38 per cent in August 2020 from 6.25 per cent July 2020, while the Open Buy Back (OBB) rate decreased to 8.39 per cent in August 2020 from 10.12 per cent in July 2020.
“The MPC noted the moderate improvement in the equities market in the review period, as the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 5.78 per cent from 24,174.75 on July 21, 2020 to 25,572.57 on September 18, 2020. On a year-to-date basis, however, the ASI decreased by 4.73 per cent compared with 26,842.07 as at December 31, 2019.
“Market Capitalisation (MC) also increased by 5.98 per cent from N12.61 trillion to N13.36 trillion over the same period. As a lead indicator, therefore, this improvement in market indices signposts the commencement of a broad-based economic recovery.
“The Committee also noted the decrease in the NPLs ratio to 6.1 per cent at end-August 2020 compared with 9.4 per cent in the corresponding period of 2019 due largely to recoveries, write offs and disposals.
“The Committee expressed confidence in the overall stability of the banking system as reflected in the positive performance of the financial soundness indicators (FSIs), despite the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic. It however, called on the Bank to sustain its regulatory oversight on the industry in the light of the continued fragility of macroeconomic indicators and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the growing risk of cyber-attacks on business and economic activities.
“On the external sector, the Committee noted the resumption of sales to the Bureau de Change (BDC) in a bid to improve liquidity and ease demand pressure in the foreign exchange market.
“Consequently, the exchange rate appreciated at all windows. The MPC observed the recent improvement in external reserves and urged the Bank to maintain its prudent allocation of foreign exchange towards balancing supply and demand.”